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Urban Shrinkage in Europe Benefits and limits of an indicator-based analysis
12 August 2010
1 June 2010
“Our city is shrinking!”, more and more mayors bemoan. Some are referring to low fertility rates, others to the outmigration of young families while the local companies see themselves shrinking due to a declining productivity and the lack of a skilled workforce. But what exactly is a shrinking city – does it mean loss of population? Overlapping and interacting trends in urban development can be recognized. This paper gives an idea of the complexity of urban shrinkage based on an analysis of European cities. Moreover, it will allow the comparison between cities among each other.
A common description of shrinkage is based on the development of the population. It was assumed, that the population trend acts as an explanation for the economic; social or housing development. But is this conclusion enough to describe the broaden aspect of shrinkage? Are there cities that face a strong decline in other parts beside from the demographic decrease? The results of this paper show that the distribution of cities with a declining population differs from the distribution resulting from a complex analysis. The complex analysis includes indicators for demography, economy and labour market. Finally, the paper points out that it is essential to characterize shrinkage with more than simply a declining population.“Our city is shrinking!”, more and more mayors bemoan. Some are referring to low fertility rates, others to the outmigration of young families while the local companies see themselves shrinking due to a declining productivity and the lack of a skilled workforce. But what exactly is a shrinking city – does it mean loss of population? Overlapping and interacting trends in urban development can be recognized. This paper gives an idea of the complexity of urban shrinkage based on an analysis of European cities. Moreover, it will allow the comparison between cities among each other.
A common description of shrinkage is based on the development of the population. It was assumed, that the population trend acts as an explanation for the economic; social or housing development. But is this conclusion enough to describe the broaden aspect of shrinkage? Are there cities that face a strong decline in other parts beside from the demographic decrease? The results of this paper show that the distribution of cities with a declining population differs from the distribution resulting from a complex analysis. The complex analysis includes indicators for demography, economy and labour market. Finally, the paper points out that it is essential to characterize shrinkage with more than simply a declining population.“Our city is shrinking!”, more and more mayors bemoan. Some are referring to low fertility rates, others to the outmigration of young families while the local companies see themselves shrinking due to a declining productivity and the lack of a skilled workforce. But what exactly is a shrinking city – does it mean loss of population? Overlapping and interacting trends in urban development can be recognized. This paper gives an idea of the complexity of urban shrinkage based on an analysis of European cities. Moreover, it will allow the comparison between cities among each other.
A common description of shrinkage is based on the development of the population. It was assumed, that the population trend acts as an explanation for the economic; social or housing development. But is this conclusion enough to describe the broaden aspect of shrinkage? Are there cities that face a strong decline in other parts beside from the demographic decrease? The results of this paper show that the distribution of cities with a declining population differs from the distribution resulting from a complex analysis. The complex analysis includes indicators for demography, economy and labour market. Finally, the paper points out that it is essential to characterize shrinkage with more than simply a declining population.
The qualitative research on shrinking cities within the paper is accompanied by indicator-based quantitative survey. Therefore, important indicators about European cities are chosen from a set of data provided by the European Union (Urban Audit). Urban Audit statistical information service of the European Union, not possible to determine a uniform population threshold due to the different national nomenclatures of cities. In Scandinavia for example all cities up to a certain limit population are fully represented whereas not all cities are represented in a other nation but with the same population. In Germany for example, some medium-sized cities are missing, which, however, are indicative of their shrinking, but unfortunately would fall out of an analysis. Overall data delivery such as in the NUTS classification (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics, a geocode standard for referencing the subdivisions of countries for statistical purposes; Urban Audit webpage, 2009). is a joint initiative of Eurostat and the Directorate General Regional Policy. Started in 1989 with 58 cities, data for four surveys was collected, which results in four reference years: 1991, 1996, 2001 and 2004 (each survey wave lasts about three years and here the reference is always given; 1991 and 1996 had been supplemented).
As shown, the results of quantitative analyses can vary depending on what kind of indicators is involved. Especially in the context of shrinkage it is challenging to pick the right aspects because the developments are partly overlapping and interacting. Furthermore, some cities can be overlooked by a simple approach, as mentioned before. Moreover, considering further trends of a city bares the whole extent of shrinkage. Certainly, the population development acts still as the main indicator. However, it also depends on other developments, particularly economic ones.
Chair of Spatial Planning Institute of Geography Dresden University of Technology
